Chris Kemp

3/1/16

The 2016 results we can already predict

http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/05/2016-predictions-117554

This article begins by stating that the number of swing states appears to be steadily decreasing.  The article goes on to discuss the elections of the 60’s and 70’s and how important the Electoral College votes were.  Things have been pretty uniform in recent years as 40 of 50 states voted for the same candidate in the elections that took place after 2000.  The article then declares that Colorado, Florida, Nevada, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa, and New Hampshire are seven super-swingy states.  The article then covers the how the Electoral College vote intertwines with the Democratic and Republican Party.  For example the Republicans not only need to keep their current supporters but they must also garner an additional 65 electoral votes.  The article then discusses that if the Republicans lose Florida or Ohio they don’t really have a chance of winning the election and ensuring a Republican president.  If the win or loss is more than around a percent in the Old Dominion then the Democrats could be on a downhill slope and ruin their chances.  The article concludes by explaining that they will expand on their analysis in the Crystal Ball newsletter. 

This article ties into what we have been learning in class considering it covers the topic of the Electoral College vote.  We have been closely following the election and the popularity of all the different candidates during class, although the Electoral College vote doesn’t come into effect until much later.  We have covered the upcoming events such as SuperTeusday but we have most recently discussed the power and impact of the Electoral College.  In the current election Hillary Clinton appears to be leading the Democratic Party and is working to keep the support in the notorious blue states.  Clinton is pushing not only to keep support in the notorious blue states but she is also fighting to turn over some common red states.  During the fight for the popular and eventually electoral vote she will have a few safe-states that could put her over the edge.  This is a double edged sword as her closed competitor Trump also has his fair share of safe-states and a large group of notorious red states.  Although the election could go either way in terms of the popular vote it may be the Electoral College that has the final push for the new presidency.